Loading...
Mental models, decoded from real events
See the hidden forces behind the events that shaped the world — and build a mind that spots them everywhere.
In May 2023, State Farm General stopped writing new homeowners policies in California; in 2024, it announced non-renewal of tens of thousands of existing California policies, citing wildfire risk and rising reconstruction costs against rate-approval lag at the California Department of Insurance. The popular framing names greedy insurers abandoning homeowners; the structural framing is that climate volatility and Prop-103-era rate regulation broke the risk-pricing loop — carriers must file rates based on historical losses, but historical losses no longer predict forward losses in a fat-tailed wildfire regime. When carriers cannot reprice fast enough, they exit; when private carriers exit, residents fall into the FAIR Plan insurer of last resort, which concentrates the same risk inside a ...
Popular framing: Greedy insurers are abandoning homeowners.
Structural analysis: Climate volatility plus regulated pricing broke the risk-pricing loop — carriers exit rather than underwrite underpriced catastrophe risk, leaving residents in a state-of-last-resort pool whose concentration risk worsens with each exit.
Naming the insurer protects the regime. The structural framing — fat-tailed wildfire losses, rate-approval lag, and adverse-selection feedback into the FAIR Plan — points to interventions at the seams of forward-looking catastrophe modeling, reinsurance treatment, and community-scale mitigation finance. The same shape now plays out for hurricane risk in Florida and Louisiana.
See the hidden forces behind the events that shaped the world — and build a mind that spots them everywhere.