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Mental models, decoded from real events
See the hidden forces behind the events that shaped the world — and build a mind that spots them everywhere.
Overfitting is the seductive trap of mistaking the map for the territory—building a model so precisely tuned to past observations that it captures noise as if it were signal. The deeper insight is that perfect explanation of the past almost guarantees poor prediction of the future, because reality's underlying patterns are simpler than the data they generate. True understanding requires the discipline to be strategically wrong about details in order to be structurally right about patterns.
See the hidden forces behind the events that shaped the world — and build a mind that spots them everywhere.