Expected Value

Probability × payoff. Weight outcomes by likelihood - not all bets are equal.

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The Startup Survival Test
The Inflation Spiral
Kahneman's Prospect Theory
The Elo Rating System
Why Underdogs Should Play Weird

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“You’ve got to have models in your head. And you’ve got to array your experience — both vicarious and direct — on this latticework of models.”— Charlie Munger

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Scenarios are AI-generated explorations of mental models applied to real-world events. Visualizations, design, and software are original works of Leema LLC.

Mental model descriptions draw on published scholarship including Munger, Kahneman, Taleb, Meadows, and others. These are learning aids, not substitutes for the cited works.

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