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Declining systems almost never fall in a straight line — they produce false recoveries that are structurally indistinguishable from genuine turnarounds until it's too late. The bounce is not random noise but a predictable feature of decline, caused by short-covering, bargain-hunting, or denial-fueled optimism consuming the last reserves of hope. Recognizing this pattern requires the painful discipline of distinguishing 'less bad' from 'actually good.'
