Conjunction Fallacy

The mind evaluates probability not by logic but by representativeness — how well a story fits a prototype. Adding vivid detail makes a scenario feel more probable precisely because it becomes more coherent as a narrative, even as it becomes mathematically less likely. This reveals that human reasoning operates on plausibility (narrative fit) rather than probability (frequency), and most of our 'gut feelings' about likelihood are actually judgments about storytelling quality.

Featured In

Browse all mental models

Loading...
Mental models, decoded from real events

See the hidden forces behind the events that shaped the world — and build a mind that spots them everywhere.

Categories

Scenarios

All Models

🔍

Your Progress